Track: Finger Lakes
Race Date: 09/01/2026
Prepared By: TrackSmart AI's Advanced Artificial Intelligence Racing Engine
Every race features AI-driven pace projections, Top 3 win contenders, and upset alerts — designed exclusively for players at SaratogaBets, BataviaBets, EmpireCityBets, and Capital OTB.
The Machine operates independently of the Morning Line. Unlike standard handicapping models that lean on public sentiment or oddsmaker predictions, TrackSmart AI generates its figures blind—before the Morning Line is even released. Pure Fundamental Analysis: AI selections are derived 100% from performance data, pace mechanics, and class algorithms. The Machine does not know who the "favorite" is supposed to be.
Race 1 — Clm 11000b / 1m70yds
AI Confidence Rank: #5 Combined Win % (Top 3): 77%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Controlled / Honest — the pace sorts out smoothly without destructive pressure, allowing the leaders to dictate fair fractions.
Early Speed Edge: #1 Ma Mi Jo Dreams holds the front-running edge, backed by a B+ TS Ignition grade and a B+ TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #4 Love Thyself holds the late kick, carrying an A- TS Closer grade from the Garden Spot just off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: #1 Ma Mi Jo Dreams protects the rail and secures the front under fair, measured fractions. #4 Love Thyself and #3 Troubled Luck establish forward tracking positions, preventing the leader from getting completely loose. As they hit the final turn, #4 Love Thyself is perfectly positioned to get first run, using her tactical versatility to capitalize on the honest tempo.
The Pace Beneficiary: Love Thyself (Garden Spot)
The Machine's Selections
#1 — Ma Mi Jo Dreams
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 33%
The Setup: A lateral class move doesn't slow him down — he's raced every 3-4 weeks all summer and his form is holding rock steady at this level.
The Edge: A B+ TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge give him the clearest path to an uncontested lead, and his Normalized TPN sits a full 2 points clear of the field.
TrackSmart Alert: Inside Speed Advantage
#4 — Love Thyself
Normalized TPN: 98 | Win Probability: 22%
The Setup: A horse-for-course standout who has stayed active and healthy all summer, now teaming with a red-hot barn.
The Edge: Her A- TS Closer grade is the best late-pace number in the field, and a 30%-strike trainer/jockey combo backs up the pristine stalking trip she projects to get.
TrackSmart Alert: Hyper-Elite Barn Intent
#3 — Troubled Luck
Normalized TPN: 96 | Win Probability: 22%
The Setup: Third off the claim and peaking — the form cycle read is rebounding off the claim with strong forward progression.
The Edge: A B+ TS Caliber and A- TS Power Score reflect real upward momentum, and she sits just 2 points behind the top pick on Normalized TPN.
TrackSmart Alert: Peaking Off the Claim
#2 — Dream On Cara
Normalized TPN: 91 | Win Probability: 17%
The Setup: Returning on a quick 12-day turnaround after a highly active summer campaign — a angle that typically signals sharp fitness.
The Edge: A deep-closer profile with a C+ TS Closer grade gives her a path if the pace gets contested up front, though she gives up ground on Normalized TPN to the top three.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Ma Mi Jo Dreams projects to control this pace from the rail on fair fractions, and nothing in the field profiles as the kind of pressure that beats a controlling-speed type in an honest race. Love Thyself and Troubled Luck both sit within 2 points of the top pick on Normalized TPN, keeping this race tightly bunched at the top and making the exacta and trifecta spots very much in play.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#6 — Soho Nights
Normalized TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 17%
Angle: Stepping up in class off speed figures that have plateaued — needs real forward progress to threaten this group.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 2 — Clm 4000n1y / 5 1/2 Furlongs
AI Confidence Rank: #4 Combined Win % (Top 3): 94%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Alpha Controls — an extreme track speed bias and a lack of true need-the-lead depth let the swiftest early horse dictate without facing a meltdown.
Early Speed Edge: #4 Grand Lady Indy holds the front-running edge, backed by a B+ TS Ignition grade and a B TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #3 Diva Banker holds the late kick, carrying a B TS Closer grade from the Garden Spot just off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: #4 Grand Lady Indy has enough natural early foot to clear the inside runners and take command of the tempo. #3 Diva Banker uses her tactical versatility to tuck into the pocket, avoiding a costly duel while maintaining striking distance. Turning for home, #3 Diva Banker gets first run on the tiring leader, perfectly positioned to exploit the controlled pace dynamics.
The Pace Beneficiary: Diva Banker (Garden Spot)
The Machine's Selections
#3 — Diva Banker
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 38%
The Setup: Dropping in class off her last start, and she's a proven horse for course at Finger Lakes to boot.
The Edge: A B TS Caliber and A- TS Power Score give her a massive class-capacity edge over this field, and she projects the ideal stalking trip behind an uncontested pace.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Drop / Course Specialist
#1 — Hypnocurrency
Normalized TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 33%
The Setup: Also dropping in class off her last start, providing major relief against a much softer group.
The Edge: A B+ TS Caliber and B+ TS Power Score back up the drop, and her Normalized TPN trails the top pick by just 3 points.
TrackSmart Alert: Major Class Drop
#4 — Grand Lady Indy
Normalized TPN: 91 | Win Probability: 22%
The Setup: Dropping in class and holding a consistent 3-4 week spacing pattern all summer.
The Edge: A B+ TS Ignition grade gives her a clear pace advantage over the weaker inside speed in this field, positioning her to control the tempo from the rail.
#2 — Sweet Tooth Sue
Normalized TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: Stepping up in class off the bench, second off a long layoff and expected to keep improving off the comeback effort.
The Edge: A B TS Ignition grade lets her press the pace effectively, though her overall Normalized TPN leaves real ground to make up on the top group.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Diva Banker's class-capacity edge and her stalking trip off an uncontested pace make her the standout in a field with a wide-open early lead scenario. With three of the top four all cutting back or dropping in class, this looks like a race where the fresher class angle carries the day.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#5 — Mrs Bell
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 11%
Angle: Form is flattening out and she lacks the early kick to keep pace with this group's top tier.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 3 — Clm 11000n3L / 1 Mile
AI Confidence Rank: #1 Combined Win % (Top 3): 89%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Lone Speed — one clear front-runner shakes loose from the field, dictating terms without facing early pressure.
Early Speed Edge: #5 Trew Violence holds the front-running edge, backed by a B+ TS Ignition grade and an A- TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): With no pressure whatsoever, #5 Trew Violence banks a B+ TS Closer grade as insurance underneath his lone-speed control — he doesn't need to rally, he simply won't be caught.
Deep Flow Analysis: #5 Trew Violence easily establishes the lead from the outside draw, facing virtually no resistance in the opening quarter. #4 I'm Solo N in Love and #2 Well Suited settle into mid-pack tracking positions to save ground. With the tempo completely unopposed, #5 Trew Violence takes a massive stamina reserve into the final turn, making him incredibly difficult to reel in down the stretch.
The Pace Beneficiary: Trew Violence — projects to control the tempo uncontested.
The Machine's Selections
#5 — Trew Violence
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 50%
The Setup: Perfect 3-4 week spacing all summer, maintaining peak late-summer form with a lone-speed route advantage today.
The Edge: An A- TS Caliber and A TS Power Score give him a massive class-capacity edge, and he holds a full 14-point Normalized TPN cushion over the rest of the field.
TrackSmart Alert: Uncontested Lone Speed
#4 — I'm Solo N in Love
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 25%
The Setup: A deep closer for an elite-intent barn, holding a consistent summer campaign schedule.
The Edge: A TS Closer grade of A is the best late-pace number in the field, giving him the clearest path to run down the lone leader if the pace ever softens.
#2 — Well Suited
Normalized TPN: 79 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: A hard-knocking, very consistently spaced grinder who profiles as a reliable route horse.
The Edge: An A- TS Closer grade backs up his tactical-stalker role, positioning him as the pace beneficiary underneath the top two if the leader comes back at all.
#1 — Solo Dancing
Normalized TPN: 73 | Win Probability: 13%
The Setup: An inside draw helps him save ground as a tactical stalker, maintaining form well into the late season.
The Edge: An A TS Closer grade is a real number, but he needs a significant jump to threaten the top of this group off his current Normalized TPN.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Trew Violence draws away without any early pressure and banks a massive stamina reserve for the stretch, and his 14-point Normalized TPN cushion over the field reflects that structural advantage. This looks like a straightforward top-of-the-board race, with I'm Solo N in Love's closing kick the most likely threat if the pace leader comes back to the field at all.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Notfanutin
Normalized TPN: 67 | Win Probability: 14%
Angle: Speed figures lag well behind the top pair; needs a career-best effort just to be competitive.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 4 — Clm 11000n2L / 5 1/2 Furlongs
AI Confidence Rank: #2 Combined Win % (Top 3): 85%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Contested / Honest-Fast — multiple speeds engage early, forcing a genuinely fast tempo that will test the stamina of the front-runners.
Early Speed Edge: #5 First Pitch holds the front-running edge, backed by an A TS Ignition grade and an A- TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #5 First Pitch survives as the Chaos Survivor of the early duel — a modest C+ TS Closer grade is enough when his class edge lets him turn back the closers late.
Deep Flow Analysis: #5 First Pitch breaks sharply from the outside and locks horns early with #2 Ride Share to establish a rapid tempo. The pace is taxing, but #5 First Pitch's superior class lets him weather the early duel. As the field turns for home, the intense early fractions take their toll on the inside speeds, allowing #5 First Pitch to edge away while #1 Allofasuddenlee attempts to rally from a stalking position.
The Pace Beneficiary: First Pitch (Chaos Survivor)
The Machine's Selections
#5 — First Pitch
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 45%
The Setup: A lateral class move against a field he's built to dominate, maintaining an active, consistent summer pattern.
The Edge: An A TS Power Score gives him a massive class-capacity edge, and his Normalized TPN sits 15 points clear of the next horse despite facing early pace pressure.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Survives the Duel
#2 — Ride Share
Normalized TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 20%
The Setup: An inside draw forces early commitment, holding a steady summer campaign with form intact.
The Edge: A C+ TS Closer grade leaves him vulnerable if the duel gets too hot, but he's the price alternative if the heavy favorite stubs his toe.
TrackSmart Alert: Value Alternative
#1 — Allofasuddenlee
Normalized TPN: 83 | Win Probability: 20%
The Setup: A highly consistent, grinder-profile tactical stalker sitting just off the pace duel.
The Edge: A B+ TS Power Score gives him the tools to pick up the pieces if the speed duel collapses, though he trails the favorite by 17 points on Normalized TPN.
#6 — Honor for Mandin
Normalized TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 9%
The Setup: A stagnant form cycle that the read flags as needing a wake-up; a deep closer hoping for a genuine pace collapse.
The Edge: A longshot flier best used underneath if the contested pace up front entirely unravels.
The Machine's Final Analysis
First Pitch's class edge is built to withstand exactly the kind of speed duel this pace projects, and a 15-point Normalized TPN gap over the rest of the field backs that up. Ride Share and Allofasuddenlee both profile as the logical beneficiaries underneath if the pace pressure proves too much for the favorite to shake off cleanly.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Montauk Memoirs
Normalized TPN: 75 | Win Probability: 29%
Angle: Takes real money on the morning line, but the back-class figures aren't fast enough to threaten the top of this group.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 5 — Clm 5000n3L / 5 1/2 Furlongs
AI Confidence Rank: #3 Combined Win % (Top 3): 81%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Contested / Honest-Fast — multiple speeds engage early, forcing a genuinely fast tempo that will test the stamina of the front-runners.
Early Speed Edge: #3 Last Drink holds the front-running edge, backed by an A TS Ignition grade and an A+ TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #6 Three Little Birds emerges as the Chaos Survivor, carrying a B TS Closer grade from a perfect tracking trip just behind the speed duel.
Deep Flow Analysis: #3 Last Drink breaks with extreme urgency, bringing heat to the pace alongside #5 Disco Dancer. The fractions are swift, demanding serious cardiovascular fitness from both. As the duel develops, #6 Three Little Birds tracks perfectly just behind the fray. Turning for home, the grueling pace exacts its toll, leaving #6 Three Little Birds poised to strike the tiring leaders while #1 Deputy Tramon saves ground inside to launch a late bid of his own.
The Pace Beneficiary: Three Little Birds (Chaos Survivor)
The Machine's Selections
#6 — Three Little Birds
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 38%
The Setup: Dropping in class with a 20%-strike trainer showing real intent, holding solid form through the late summer.
The Edge: An A- TS Caliber and A TS Power Score give him a massive class-capacity edge, and he projects the ideal stalking trip to pounce on a pace that figures to burn out its leaders.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Drop / Perfect Stalk
#1 — Deputy Tramon
Normalized TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 25%
The Setup: Very steady, reliable cycle spacing with an inside draw that sets up a perfect ground-saving trip.
The Edge: A B+ TS Power Score and a Normalized TPN just 3 points off the top pick make him a legitimate threat to hit the board at a fair price.
#3 — Last Drink
Normalized TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 18%
The Setup: Maintaining an active, consistent schedule and projecting extreme early speed to dictate the pace outright.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge are the best early-pace numbers in the field — if he clears the field cleanly, this is over early.
TrackSmart Alert: Extreme Early Speed
#8 — Not My Type
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 11%
The Setup: A sharp, frequently-raced runner who is fit and ready, capable of pressing the pace effectively.
The Edge: A B TS Caliber gives him overlay potential underneath a field that figures to soften late off a hot pace.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Three Little Birds gets the ideal setup here — a genuine speed duel up front between Last Drink and Disco Dancer sets the race up perfectly for his stalking style, and his class-drop angle only adds to the case. Deputy Tramon's ground-saving inside trip makes him the most reliable alternative if the top pick doesn't fire.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#2 — Montauk Surf
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 14%
Angle: Average speed figures across the board leave him needing a perfect trip just to factor.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 6 — Clm 5000b / 5 1/2 Furlongs
AI Confidence Rank: #6 Combined Win % (Top 3): 82%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Alpha Controls — an extreme track speed bias and a lack of true need-the-lead depth let the swiftest early horse dictate without facing a meltdown.
Early Speed Edge: #4 Sharpaz holds the front-running edge, backed by an A TS Ignition grade and a B+ TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #1 Monomoy Beach holds the late kick from the Garden Spot, carrying a B TS Closer grade off a pristine inside stalking trip.
Deep Flow Analysis: #4 Sharpaz and #5 G Munning shoot forward from the outside stalls to establish a swift early tempo, clearing the inside runners. #1 Monomoy Beach uses a pristine inside draw to secure a ground-saving stalking position just behind the leaders. The pace is hot, but the track's speed bias protects the leaders from a total collapse, allowing #1 Monomoy Beach to angle out and get first run in the stretch, while #6 Emerald Forest rallies from mid-pack.
The Pace Beneficiary: Monomoy Beach (Garden Spot)
The Machine's Selections
#1 — Monomoy Beach
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 33%
The Setup: A lateral class move with elite trainer intent and a rail draw advantage that sets up his entire trip.
The Edge: An A TS Caliber and a pristine inside stalking position give him the top Normalized TPN in the field by 4 points over a pair of established contenders.
TrackSmart Alert: Rail Draw Advantage
#6 — Emerald Forest
Normalized TPN: 96 | Win Probability: 29%
The Setup: A proven horse for course with a massive historical class advantage and a red-hot trainer/jockey combo.
The Edge: An A+ TS Caliber and A+ TS Power Score are the best class numbers on the board, making the established veteran impossible to ignore underneath.
TrackSmart Alert: Course Specialist / Hot Barn
#2 — Profitability
Normalized TPN: 96 | Win Probability: 20%
The Setup: Highly consistent summer spacing with rock-solid form heading into today.
The Edge: An A TS Velocity trend and a solid tracking-trip role make him an honest, hard-knocking threat to hit the board at a fair price.
#5 — G Munning
Normalized TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 13%
The Setup: A proven horse for course with relentless early speed, grinding effectively through an active summer.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition grade gives him the raw early foot to cross over and dictate terms if the front end gets loose.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Monomoy Beach's rail draw and pristine stalking trip put him in the best spot to exploit a hot, bias-protected pace, but Emerald Forest's class edge and Profitability's rock-solid consistency both sit within 4 points on Normalized TPN — this is a legitimately three-horse race at the top.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Nyikos
Normalized TPN: 83 | Win Probability: 25%
Angle: Takes on too much pressure from the outside speeds in this pace scenario to be fully trusted.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 7 — Alw 26500n2L / 1m70yds
AI Confidence Rank: #3 Combined Win % (Top 3): 80%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Tactical / Crawl — the pace is entirely soft, allowing the controlling speed to dictate the tempo without expending any serious energy early.
Early Speed Edge: #1 Flat Cap holds the front-running edge by default, backed by a C+ TS Ignition grade and a C+ TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #5 Hey Pal holds the late kick from a perfect pressing trip, carrying a B+ TS Closer grade.
Deep Flow Analysis: The pace is agonizingly slow. #1 Flat Cap inherits the lead by default and dictates terms. #5 Hey Pal and #4 Resilient Hero press mildly but decline to force a suicidal tempo, and because the leaders use virtually no energy in the first half of the race, the deep closers are completely neutralized. #5 Hey Pal uses his superior tactical position to inherit the soft pace before pouncing in the stretch run.
The Pace Beneficiary: Hey Pal (Garden Spot)
The Machine's Selections
#5 — Hey Pal
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 38%
The Setup: A massive class-capacity edge in a paceless race, maintaining an extremely sharp, reliable summer pattern.
The Edge: An A TS Caliber and A+ TS Power Score back up a pristine pressing trip, and his Normalized TPN sits a clean 2 points clear of the field's best speed figure.
TrackSmart Alert: Perfect Pressing Trip
#4 — Resilient Hero
Normalized TPN: 98 | Win Probability: 25%
The Setup: Resumed active racing smoothly with form holding strong, carrying a real speed-figure and class edge into today.
The Edge: An A TS Caliber and A TS Power Score are the strongest raw speed metrics in the field, just 2 points behind the top pick on Normalized TPN.
#3 — Almez
Normalized TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 17%
The Setup: A very active summer campaign with high class power backing up a pace-presser role.
The Edge: An A TS Caliber and A+ TS Power Score make him a logical exotics player underneath the top two.
#7 — Magic Beach
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 11%
The Setup: Maintaining form well into the late summer as a consistent underneath threat in route races.
The Edge: An A- TS Caliber gives him a solid route profile, though he trails the top pick by 14 points on Normalized TPN.
The Machine's Final Analysis
With the pace projecting agonizingly slow, Hey Pal's pressing trip right off a paceless leader sets up as the ideal spot, and his tight 2-point Normalized TPN edge over Resilient Hero keeps this at the top of the board. Flat Cap remains the wild card as the lone speed, but his modest TS Ignition and TS Surge grades make him a fade at the price he'll likely go off.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#2 — Sunday's Currency
Normalized TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 11%
Angle: An honest grinder profile, but a step slow on the figures to threaten the top of this group.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 8 — MC 11000 / 5 1/2 Furlongs
AI Confidence Rank: #1 Combined Win % (Top 3): 86%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Controlled / Honest — the pace sorts out smoothly without destructive pressure, allowing the leaders to dictate fair fractions.
Early Speed Edge: #1 All Fun N Games holds the front-running edge by default, backed by a B+ TS Ignition grade and a B+ TS Surge grade.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #3 Scarlett Queen holds the late kick from the Garden Spot, carrying a B+ TS Closer grade.
Deep Flow Analysis: In a remarkably weak maiden claiming event, #1 All Fun N Games is the only horse demonstrating competent early foot and easily controls the tempo from the inside. #3 Scarlett Queen tracks closest on the outside, avoiding any kickback. As they swing into the stretch, #3 Scarlett Queen's massive class and speed-figure advantage takes over, powering past the loose leader in a race devoid of true competition.
The Pace Beneficiary: Scarlett Queen (Garden Spot)
The Machine's Selections
#3 — Scarlett Queen
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 50%
The Setup: A lateral class move against a historically weak field, holding consistent summer form.
The Edge: An A TS Caliber and A TS Power Score give her a massive class-capacity edge over a putrid group, and her Normalized TPN sits a full 20 points clear of the field.
TrackSmart Alert: Overwhelming Class Edge
#1 — All Fun N Games
Normalized TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 22%
The Setup: Running consistently with form that's perfectly fine for this level, controlling speed by default on the rail.
The Edge: A B+ TS Ignition grade lets her dictate the pace uncontested, giving her a clean look at the lead into the stretch even against the top pick's class edge.
#4 — Rahfee Tonalist
Normalized TPN: 78 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: Second off a long layoff for an elite-intent barn, with expected improvement off the comeback effort.
The Edge: A hot trainer/jockey combo backs up the layoff-improvement angle, giving her overlay upside underneath.
TrackSmart Alert: 2nd Off the Layoff
#5 — Big Jackie
Normalized TPN: 77 | Win Probability: 14%
The Setup: A class plunge for a barn with solid trainer numbers, maintaining decent spacing.
The Edge: A B+ TS Caliber makes her a capable underneath threat if the top two falter.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Scarlett Queen's 20-point Normalized TPN edge over the rest of this field is the largest margin on the entire card, and her class advantage over an outmatched group makes her about as close to a lock as this engine produces. All Fun N Games remains the only threat to make her earn it, given she's the lone horse with real early foot to control the pace.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#7 — Find Me a Prince
Normalized TPN: 75 | Win Probability: 17%
Angle: Speed figures fall well short of the top pick even in this depleted field.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
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